Week 8 Wrapped
We've made it through Week 8, which we'll treat as the half-way mark of our season (the playoff championship will take place in week 17). Let's take a look at where things stand and where they might go for the competitors β nay, Gladiators β of do you like football.
Status Quo
Four teams stand at 6-2, holding down the projected playoff spots. Swerski's is knocking on the door at 5-31, and many-time champion #MNF has a sliver of hope at 3-5...or does it?
If We Lived in a Simulation
Monte Carlo simulation of the remainder of the season
The Monte Carlo Simulation of the remainder of the season puts Swerski's Super Fans in the driver's seat to win the championship (44.5% of seasons), followed by Crouching Tiger (23.6%), and π¨ππππ¨ (13.5%). #MNF, mentioned above, made the playoffs 8.4% of the time. Hopefully this provides some motivation for trades, bold waiver and free agent moves, and a competitive push down the stretch.
| Team | Now | Proj W | Proj PF | Playoffs | #1 seed | Final | Title | Last | ROS proj/wk | Edge kept |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swerskiβs Super Fans | 5-3 | 10.6 | 1876 | 96.9% | 52.4% | 67.1% | 44.5% | 0.0% | 126.2 | +2.7 |
| Crouching Tiger | 6-2 | 10.0 | 1810 | 91.6% | 22.7% | 49.9% | 23.6% | 0.0% | 112.7 | +5.9 |
| π¨ππππ¨ | 6-2 | 9.8 | 1730 | 83.2% | 13.3% | 34.9% | 13.5% | 0.0% | 110.1 | +0.8 |
| The Fast and the Jahmyrious | 6-2 | 9.2 | 1706 | 66.5% | 6.9% | 29.0% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 111.8 | +0.9 |
| Suphian's Revenge | 6-2 | 9.1 | 1591 | 51.7% | 4.7% | 14.8% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 99.0 | +1.0 |
| #MNF | 3-5 | 6.7 | 1692 | 8.4% | 0.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 111.8 | +0.8 |
| Acho Endzone | 2-6 | 5.8 | 1550 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 118.4 | -4.1 |
| .08 Over Par | 2-6 | 5.2 | 1514 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 103.6 | -0.9 |
| Rawdawgs | 2-6 | 5.2 | 1473 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 105.9 | -3.8 |
| Weekend Jail | 2-6 | 3.3 | 1279 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 83.1% | 81.8 | -3.2 |
Pythagorean Wins and Luck
| Team | W-L | PF | PA | Pythag W | All-play W | All-play % | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crouching Tiger | 6-2 | 979.90 | 754.10 | 6.29 | 5.00 | 62% | +1.00 |
| π¨ππππ¨ | 6-2 | 953.60 | 806.40 | 5.58 | 5.44 | 68% | +0.56 |
| The Fast and the Jahmyrious | 6-2 | 916.80 | 837.90 | 4.88 | 4.56 | 57% | +1.44 |
| Suphian's Revenge | 6-2 | 891.20 | 866.40 | 4.28 | 4.33 | 54% | +1.67 |
| Swerskiβs Super Fans | 5-3 | 974.10 | 802.90 | 5.79 | 4.67 | 58% | +0.33 |
| #MNF | 3-5 | 903.60 | 907.80 | 3.95 | 5.11 | 64% | -2.11 |
| .08 Over Par | 2-6 | 794.60 | 996.50 | 1.96 | 3.33 | 42% | -1.33 |
| Rawdawgs | 2-6 | 758.50 | 865.70 | 2.73 | 2.33 | 29% | -0.33 |
| Acho Endzone | 2-6 | 749.90 | 949.60 | 1.88 | 2.56 | 32% | -0.56 |
| Weekend Jail | 2-6 | 728.80 | 863.60 | 2.40 | 2.67 | 33% | -0.67 |
To go back to #MNF, it has been the most snakebit team by record, with the second-highest all-play winning percentage (64%). By that metric, we would expect #MNF to be more like 5-3 if life was fair, but it is not. Sad!
By Pythagorean Wins, Crouching Tiger's season looks most impressive to date. Swerski's unsurprisingly looks strong here, as well. The biggest beneficiary of luck is apparently Suphian's Revenge, and it lines up that this team is a coin-flip to make the playoffs based upon the simulation above and these calculated metrics.
Don't Give Up!
The Monte Carlo simulation assumes no roster moves, trades, or unset lineups. We know all of these things will happen between now and the end of the season. Let's push for a great bout of competition down the stretch!
Now, let's look back at week 8.
Predictions, scored
#MNF gets a big win against Suphian's Revenge. Even a game against the Jets can't elicit high-end production from Cousins at QB. Strong games from #MNF's Green Bay faction put this out of reach.
Zero Points - Kirk Cousins put up 28.18 points against the Jets (3 passing TDs, 1 rush TD, 247 passing yards) and Suphian's Revenge won this brotherly battle. A whiff by me.
The Fast and the Jahmyrious never has a doubt against Weekend Jail, in spite of a set lineup...
Full Point - TFatJ won by more than 37, but I feel bad because Weekend Jail did set its lineup. Lamar Jackson got injured on the Ravens' first offensive snap, and that was that. Didn't affect the outcome here, but damn.
Rawdawgs gets the win against Swerski's due to another unset lineup by the latter.
Zero Points - Swerski's set its lineup and won. Whoops.
Crouching Tiger and its cadre of Cincinnati Bengals hold on against Acho Endzone. Big weeks from Chase (WR) and Swift (RB). Not enough from Acho Endzone's receivers.
Full Point - Crouching Tiger got 42.48 points from Burrow, 26.90 from Swift, 25.60 from Chase, and 32.50 from Higgins. It led the league with 197.58 total points this week and likely vanquished any lingering hope for Acho Endzone.
It's closer than expected, but π¨ππππ¨ gets a win against .08 Over Par. Goff throws his first pick of the season against the Vikings defense, and that is one of a few things that get in the way of a .08 Over Par win.
Full Point - It was...not closer than expected, but Goff did throw his first pick of the season.
Self-adjudicated score: 3/5
Prediction record this week: 3-2
Prediction record through Week 8: 23-17
Players, superlativized
High Flyer of the Week
given to the highest scoring rostered, active player each week
Joe Burrow, QB, of Crouching Tiger put up 42.48 points (5 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD) in an incredible performance against the terrible Tennessee Titans.
Little Stinker of the Week
given to the lowest scoring rostered, active player each week
Two goose eggs to celebrate this week!
Zay Flowers, WR, of Swerski's Super Fans did nothing with the five targets that went his way after Lamar Jackson went out.
Tre Tucker, WR, of The Fast and the Jahmyrious followed suit while only receiving one target. This one was more surprising, given the big day Kirk Cousins had at QB for the Raiders.
Bad Benching
given to the highest scoring rostered, but benched, player each week
Tyler Allgeier, RB, of π¨ππππ¨ had 33.60 bench points (191 total yards, 2 TDs). Starting this Arizona Cardinal over Derrick Henry would have netted an additional 20 points for Emoji Gang, but fortunately2 it did not make a material difference. Tyler will be the lead back for the Cardinals for the foreseeable future, due to running mate Love's injury.
Dishonorable mentions
- Harold Fannin, TE, .08 Over Par scored 18.40 points from the bench (10 receptions, 154 yards, plus a fumble). Every Cleveland Brown has his day!
Waiver Whiff
given to the non-rostered player who scored the most points each week
Cam Ward, QB, Tennessee scored 26.26 points (345 total yards, 2 passing TDs) against the Bengals, in a game that went to overtime. I did not expect to mention Cam Ward for the rest of the season, but here we are. I dare you to roster him.
Exceeding Expectations Star of the Week
given to the team whose points total most greatly exceeded their projection each week
Crouching Tiger is back for a third straight week and I hate it. Will the Bengals maximalism eventually blow up in its face? Probably! But in the meantime, scoring 197.58 against a projected 115.00 is truly impressive and worth a note.
Commish's Bright Move of the Week
something Commish noticed and liked each week
You might already know this, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Atlanta Falcons 16-0 without completing a pass (and only 3 pass attempts)! Unreal.
Looking Forward
"Nothing happens to anyone that he is not fitted by nature to bear."
β Maximus, Gladiator