Week 5 Preview and First Quarter Check-in
It's Week 5. We have four teams with a 3-1 record, two at .500 with a 2-2 record, and four at 1-3. I sense high, high hopes for the cream of the crop, some budding optimism for our middling managers, and hopes are starting to fade for the lingering lads.
Pythagorean Wins
What?
This is an old sabermetrics concept by Bill James, who noticed that an MLB team's record is tightly coupled to its runs scored (RS) versus runs allowed (RA): win percentage β . Over time, people did the math and found a better exponent to be 1.83 for baseball and roughly 2.37 for the NFL.
I thought it would be interesting to apply this to fantasy football. If a team's real record is considerably better than their Pythagorean wins indicate, it points to luck (or perhaps just noise) being the reason. Teams that overperform relative to their Pythagorean record tend to regress toward it in the playoffs or in the following season.
Pythagorean wins measure how much a scoring edge is worth in terms of wins. Scoring in the NFL has much higher variance relative to the average. A team that averages 20 points per game will have Sundays where they score 3 and Sundays where they score 33. Fantasy scores do not have as great of a variance. As a result, a small edge in scoring margin has a bigger impact on winning in a league such as do you like football. Our league averages 111 points per team per week, and any given team typically stays within Β±25 points of its individual average. This results in an exponent of 5.1 for our Pythagorean algorithm:
do you like football win percentage β
Four weeks of fantasy is a small sample, so Pythagorean wins remain really noisy for us. They're posted below, but the more interesting thing is the all-play record. This measures the percentage of the league each team would have beaten so far this season, which accounts for schedule luck.
Results
| Team | W-L | PF | PA | Pythag W | All-play W | All-play % | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swerskiβs Super Fans | 3-1 | 545.02 | 398.58 | 3.33 | 3.00 | 75% | +0.00 |
| The Fast and the Jahmyrious | 3-1 | 516.24 | 461.92 | 2.55 | 2.89 | 72% | +0.11 |
| π¨ππππ¨ | 3-1 | 510.80 | 431.18 | 2.82 | 3.00 | 75% | +0.00 |
| Suphian's Revenge | 3-1 | 481.30 | 433.46 | 2.52 | 2.44 | 61% | +0.56 |
| #MNF | 2-2 | 465.46 | 445.82 | 2.22 | 2.56 | 64% | -0.56 |
| Crouching Tiger | 2-2 | 441.48 | 408.88 | 2.39 | 2.00 | 50% | +0.00 |
| .08 Over Par | 1-3 | 397.12 | 545.48 | 0.66 | 1.33 | 33% | -0.33 |
| Weekend Jail | 1-3 | 381.98 | 463.42 | 1.09 | 1.33 | 33% | -0.33 |
| Acho Endzone | 1-3 | 361.88 | 436.02 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 25% | +0.00 |
| Rawdawgs | 1-3 | 350.48 | 427.00 | 1.07 | 0.44 | 11% | +0.56 |
Swerski's and Emoji Gang net out as the top teams in terms of Pythagorean wins and all-play wins thus far. Suphian's Revenge is leading the league in terms of luck alongside Rawdawgs, and #MNF is suffering the worst from bad luck1. Hopefully this gives some managers hope and does not over inflate others.
Monte Carlo Simulation
What?
I explained this in the 2026 Kickoff Post!
Where things stand after Week 4
After 50,000 simulated seasons, starting from where we are today, Swerski's Super Fans leads the pack with a 27% chance at the title. Commish's Emoji Gang follows at 26%. Acho Endzone is 52% likely to finish last in the league, with only a 0.7% chance to make the playoffs. Ouch.
| Team | Now | Proj. wins | Playoffs | #1 seed | Reach final | Title | Finish last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swerski's Super Fans | 3-1 | 10.0 | 87.1% | 34.0% | 49.6% | 27.2% | 0.0% |
| π¨ππππ¨ | 3-1 | 10.0 | 85.3% | 31.4% | 48.8% | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| The Fast and the Jahmyrious | 3-1 | 9.3 | 73.9% | 17.3% | 36.3% | 18.2% | 0.1% |
| Suphian's Revenge | 3-1 | 8.9 | 57.4% | 9.2% | 22.4% | 8.8% | 0.4% |
| #MNF | 2-2 | 7.9 | 43.2% | 4.6% | 20.8% | 10.1% | 1.0% |
| Crouching Tiger | 2-2 | 7.8 | 36.3% | 3.0% | 15.8% | 7.0% | 1.3% |
| .08 Over Par | 1-3 | 5.7 | 6.5% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 12.4% |
| Weekend Jail | 1-3 | 5.8 | 5.6% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 12.7% |
| Rawdawgs | 1-3 | 5.4 | 4.0% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 19.8% |
| Acho Endzone | 1-3 | 4.1 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 52.3% |
50,000 simulated seasons of weeks 5β15 on the real schedule. Top 4 make the playoffs (semis week 16, final week 17). Standings ties go to points for.
When the season started, Swerski's was given only an 11.5% chance at the title. Things can change! Don't let the simulation tell you what is possible.
Walking the Wire
There have been plenty of position players and quarterbacks moving this week, with only one defense rotated (Weekend Jail dropping the Seahawks in favor of the Bengals2).
Wide Receivers
The Fast and the Jahmyrious dropped Kalif Raymond for Roman Wilson, who is finding a groove with Aaron Rodgers. I'm personally excited to see the former Wolverine look the part in Steeltown.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has been left on the tarmac by #MNF who, like 25% of managers on Yahoo!, has decided enough is enough. Is MHJ the biggest bust at Wide Receiver since Braylon Edwards?
Acho Endzone is chasing the high of Romeo Doubs' big week against New England. We'll see if he keeps it up against the surprisingly staunch Las Vegas defense this week. At the very least, it won't feel as mediocre as Chris Godwin's 6.18 points per week.
Quarterback
LockWatch continues - Weekend Jail dropped him for Courtland Sutton last week and all MoWJ got was 0.90 points on the bench3.
Kirk Cousins has joined Suphian's Revenge, taking Kyler Murray's place. He's primed to start this week. We'll see if this is the difference in a tightly projected matchup against Rawdawgs.
Miscellanea
MoAE is seeing if TJ Hockenson stays hot after a big week against Miami (18.40 points; 13 receptions, 119 yards). Will Hock have a huge week in the Big Easy?
I'm not going to write about kicker streaming moves4.
Highest Projected Starter of the Week
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, The Fast and the Jahmyrious
23.84 points, at the Arizona Cardinals
Gibbs has been a worthy top pick this season, leading skill players with 105 points over the first four games. Big week against Arizona ahead.
Lowest Projected Starter of the Week
QB, WR, RB, TE only
Dalton Schultz, TE, Rawdawgs
7.04 points, at Tennessee
Schultz was also the nominee last week, and he scored 1.90 points against Dallas. Things are likely to stay bad here. Someone trade Rawdawgs a tight end?
The aforementioned TJ Hockenson is not far ahead, projected only 7.14 points at New Orleans. MoAE is playing with fire, but with Kelce on the bench do they really have a choice?
Game of the Week
Rawdawgs vs. Suphian's Revenge
Projected: 102.04 to 108.06, 210.10 combined
Suphian's Revenge has the opportunity to stay hot and move to 4-1, but there is a significant bet on Kirk Cousins keeping the ship afloat while Bryce Young enjoys his bye week in Cancun. It's more than feasible that Rawdawgs gets a big week out of Lawrence at QB, plus one of Jonathan Taylor, Jeremiyah Love (versus the Lions defense), and/or Drake London, and its season gets back on track as a result.
Snoozefest of the Week
Acho Endzone vs The Fast and the Jahmyrious
Projected: 102.55 to 120.24, 222.79 combined
TFatJ is on a roll, and Acho Endzone is At the End of its Rope. Maybe Brissett has a big week at QB against the Lions defense, but MoAE will pay in karma for betting against the hometown team.
Commish's Picks
- The Fast and the Jahmyrious win big over Acho Endzone. As mentioned above, Brissett ends up being the wrong answer to the right question for MoAE.
- Swerski's Super Fans squeaks out a closer-than-projected matchup against .08 Over Par. The latter get big weeks from Goff, Williams, and Nacua but it's not enough to overcome Swerski's overall depth.
- Crouching Tiger remembers to set its lineup and gets a comfortable win against Weekend Jail.
- π¨ππππ¨ sneaks out a win against #MNF. Bo Nix has another bad week in a low scoring game against the Chargers, and that makes all the difference.
- Suphian's Revenge is upset by Rawdawgs, who strings together a strong week, including a relatively high score from the Packers D.
On the season: 11-9
Thanks for reading!